who would win a war between australia and china who would win a war between australia and china

Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. The capital of China is Beijing. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. No doubt Australian passions would run high. The geographic focus is decisive. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . Credit:AP. Chinas focus on its region would give it a local advantage in any clash with the US. As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. What would war with China look like for Australia? "It depends. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. The impact on Americans would be profound. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. 2. So it would be an even match. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. And what would such a fight look like? A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Were working to restore it. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. And the West may not be able to do much about it. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. Possibly completely different. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. It isn't Ukraine. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. Mr. Xi has championed . Rebuilding them could take years. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. Australia is especially exposed. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. We should not assume it will attempt this.". Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "This would be followed by a sea-crossing phase, a landing phase and a consolidation phase. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. "So, how would China prosecute the war? China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km). Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. Part 1. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. And a navy. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. Nor can a military modelled in its image. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. In such a scenario, any Australian task force centred on its largely undefended troop transports and limited warship escorts would be under extreme risk. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. China is aware of this gap. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. But it took four vulnerable tanker aircraft to carry them over that 6000km round trip. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. Please try again later. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all.